Apple Expected To Be Close To Highest Global Smartphone Shipment In 2023 As Total Shipments Reach Lowest Level In 10 Years

2023 is shaping up to be the worst year for global smartphone shipments in a decade, with a 6 percent decline to 1.15 billion units, a report released Thursday showed.

Asia is one of the biggest obstacles to positive growth, as headwinds halted the economic turnaround expected for China at the beginning of the year, and the broader region is experiencing intensifying declines in developing markets, according to Counterpoint Research’s preliminary figures.

Regional macro risks raise smartphone replacement rates to record levels. North America remains a significant obstacle to the global recovery, with a disappointing first half of 2023 that has seen it decline by double digits for the full year.

Despite a strong job market and falling inflation, consumers are hesitant to upgrade their devices, pushing replacement rates in the U.S. and globally to record highs, the report said.

However, according to the report, premium and ultra-premium growth is a trend that is happening worldwide and favors vendors like Apple, whose portfolios are heavily weighted in the higher end segments.

The year could mark the beginning of a new era for Apple as flexible in the premium market, and a strong presence in the United States could help Apple become the first worldwide number one in annual shipments.

“It’s the closest Apple has to the top. We’re talking about a difference that’s literally a few days worth of sales. Assuming Apple doesn’t run into production issues like it did last year, it’s really confusing at this point,” said Jeff Fieldhack, director of North American research.

Analysts are watching Q4 with interest because “iPhone 15 launch is a window for operators to steal valuable customers”.

“And with that large iPhone 12 installed base, the bidding is aggressive, which puts Apple in a good spot,” Fieldhack noted.

In China, “Apple is in a good position as the share of the premium segment increases,” added Ethan Qi, vice president of China.