NASA Warns of Possible Further Solar Storms After Three Impact Earth

Yesterday, scientists observed an unstable sunspot called AR3450 heading towards Earth. There were concerns that any explosions in this area could cause a geoeffective coronal mass ejection (CME) and result in a solar storm. However, no such activity has occurred yet. Despite this, a recent report has revealed that September experienced three separate solar storm events, two of which were particularly intense and reached the mid-latitude regions. As we approach the peak of the 11-year Solar Cycle, known as the Solar Maximum, in October, there is uncertainty about what lies ahead. To gain insight into what we can expect, we examine data from the NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO).

According to data from NASA SDO, the sun looks calm at the moment. However, images from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA), an instrument at SDO that allows scientists to see the sun at different wavelengths between 193 and 304 Angstroms, show an interesting development. A long and dark whip-like structure can be seen in the sun’s northern hemisphere, indicating a particularly unstable region that could explode.

The data doesn’t give us an outlook for the entire month, as no solar storm forecast or prediction model can describe with our current technology, but it shows that the potential for solar activity is as high as the previous month. This means that it is possible to face solar storms in October as well.

September sees several solar storms

According to a SpaceWeather.com report, “The Sun has been pummeling Earth with CMEs. Three major strikes occurred in September, each causing a geomagnetic storm in the mid-latitude aurora borealis.

There were two reasons that explain the high solar activity last month. The first is the approaching Solar Maximum, which will witness the highest solar activity in 11 years. The second was the autumnal equinox, which was on September 23rd. Based on historical data, it is known that during the equinox, the sun’s activity always increases. The combination of both likely resulted in three separate geomagnetic storms.

It is impossible to say whether October will have a similar effect, but early signs indicate that we may be looking at high solar activity in the first few days of the month. The only saving grace is that everything may not be earth oriented.

The technology behind observing the sun

While many space agencies—from NASA to the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)—monitor sun-based weather phenomena, one in particular is NOAA’s DSCOVR satellite. The satellite was launched in 2016 and monitors various measurements of the Sun and its atmosphere, such as temperature, velocity, density, degree of inclination and frequency of solar particles. The returned data is then run through the Space Weather Prediction Center and a final analysis is prepared.