Solar Storm Intensifies: Potential for Double Impact from Earth-Bound CMEs

The solar storm predictions for the week are becoming increasingly alarming. Following the appearance of a large and unstable sunspot on Sunday, NASA satellites observed a prolonged solar flare eruption the following day. On Tuesday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed that a rapidly moving coronal mass ejection (CME) resulting from the event will reach Earth on either July 20 or 21. Today, NOAA has identified another CME cloud heading towards our planet, which could potentially impact the magnetosphere on July 22. Astronomers are now expressing heightened concerns as the combined impact of these events could lead to a highly dangerous solar storm.

According to a SpaceWeather.com report, “Another CME appears headed for Earth after a complex eruption near sunspot AR3376 on July 18… It should hit Earth’s magnetic field on July 22. A one-two punch arriving on July 21 and 22 will add a G2 or larger geomagnetic storm possibilities later this week.

Yesterday’s forecast also hinted at a G3 geomagnetic storm, and today’s data has only strengthened its potential.

A strong solar storm is expected during the next three days

There are other complications as well. The one-two punch of CME is the best case. However, any other solar flare at that time, or the presence of the solar wind also approaching Earth, could further amplify the overall effect.

In the worst case scenario, we could see another G4 geomagnetic storm, similar to the one we saw on March 23, 2023. The storm was classified as severe and its impact was seen as far south as France. It was the strongest solar storm in six years and reportedly even delayed the launch of a SpaceX rocket by a few hours. Other effects of such a strong solar storm include damaging satellites and causing fluctuations in power grids. In addition, GPS interference and shortwave radio interference are also possible in such storms.

This period is also associated with extreme caution for mariners, drone pilots, ham radio operators and those working with low-frequency wireless communications, as it may interfere with reception.

The technology behind solar observation

While many space agencies—from NASA to the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)—monitor sun-based weather phenomena, one in particular stands out, NOAA’s DSCOVR satellite. The satellite was launched in 2016 and monitors various measurements of the Sun and its atmosphere, such as temperature, velocity, density, degree of inclination and frequency of solar particles. The returned data is then run through the Space Weather Prediction Center and a final analysis is prepared.