X-class Solar Flares Expected Today – Possible Risk of Power Outages

A fresh sunspot has emerged on the side of the Sun facing Earth, exhibiting active solar flares. Fortunately, it has not yet erupted, but its stability is uncertain. Consequently, today’s solar storm prediction includes the potential for an X-class solar flare eruption and the risk of radio disruptions caused by passing solar winds. It is uncertain whether any eruptions today could result in a coronal mass ejection (CME) directed towards Earth, posing an additional threat of a solar storm.

Space weather physicist Tamitha Skov posted a detailed solar storm forecast on her X account. According to the forecast, there is a 35 percent chance of an M class solar flare (R1-R2) and a 5 percent chance of an X class solar flare (R3). In addition, there is a 10 percent risk that the radiation storm will also hit Earth.

Solar flare scare and radio outages

Earlier today, SpaceWeatherLive, an X account dedicated to live space weather reporting, tweeted “03:15 UTC – Type II Radio Emission. Start time: 17/08/2023 02:29 UTC. Estimated speed: 253 km/s.

Radio radiations are electromagnetic waves that are thermally charged and are released from the Sun during solar activity. Type II is a moderate emitter, but can still cause shortwave radio interference that can affect ham radio operators, drone pilots, sailors, and those who rely on shortwave frequencies.

Fortunately, today it doesn’t look like Earth is being hit by a CME that could cause a solar storm event. But if these predicted solar flares go off, things could change quickly.

How NOAA’s DSCOVR satellite observes the sun

NOAA monitors solar storms and the Sun’s behavior with its DSCOVR satellite, launched in 2016. The returned data is then run through the Space Weather Prediction Center and a final analysis is prepared. Different measurements are made of the temperature, speed, density, degree of orientation and frequency of solar particles.