Risk of Carrington-level Solar Storm Increases as Sunspot Count Reaches 21-Year High
The solar data for the previous month has been released, and it is quite alarming as we step into July. In June 2023, a staggering average of 163 sunspots was recorded, breaking a 21-year record for the highest number of sunspots. What’s even more concerning is that this record-breaking figure has been achieved in just half a year. Contrary to initial predictions of a weaker Solar Cycle 25 compared to its predecessor, the current projection indicates that it will surpass Solar Cycle 24 in terms of intensity. This escalating solar activity has raised concerns among researchers, who now fear the possibility of a powerful solar storm similar to the Carrington event striking the Earth in the near future.
According to data from the Solar Influences Data Analysis Center of the Royal Belgian Observatory, the average number of sunspots in June was 163, reaching a 21-year high in 2023. A SpaceWeather.com report says, “Solar cycle 25 has surpassed solar cycle 24 and may be on pace to rival some of the stronger cycles of the 20th century. The last time the sunspot count was this high was near the 2003 Great Halloween Storms, which included the strongest X-ray from sunspots ever recorded (X45) Interestingly, the event’s coronal mass ejection (CME) was so bright that Voyager recorded it all the way from the edge of the solar system.
The number of sunspots increases solar storm fears
The number of sunspots is directly proportional to the intensity of the solar peak. The previous solar cycle was considered mild because the difference between solar maximum and solar minimum (the period of the solar cycle when the Sun’s activity is at its lowest) was very small.
But with new data on the number of sunspots in June 2023, it appears that this time Earth will have an unpredictable solar maximum, and it could cause violent solar storms in the coming months.
Solar storms are caused by coronal mass ejection (CME) particles, which are always released during a solar flare. These eruptions, also called solar flares, occur in the middle of sunspots, which are regions of unstable magnetic fields on the Sun’s surface. So the more sunspots there are, the greater the chance of solar storms.
Although it is impossible to predict how severe the peak of this solar cycle will be, a particularly violent phase was observed in 1859, when the Earth suffered the worst solar storm in history. It is now known as the Carrington event. Such a solar storm today can cause terrifying damage. It can interfere with GPS, disrupt mobile networks and the Internet, and even cause a massive blackout by corrupting power grids. Even electronic devices on Earth are not safe from malfunctions.
