Investigating the Reality of Asteroid Impacts on Earth: Examining the Data

Could the asteroid threat be dismissed as a product of our imagination? Is our fear primarily influenced by Hollywood blockbusters like Armageddon, starring Bruce Willis and Ben Affleck, or the more recent Don’t Look Up, featuring Leonardo DiCaprio and Jennifer Lawrence? Well, it is important to recognize that these asteroids pose a significant danger to Earth. While the likelihood of an asteroid collision is low, it has occurred in the past, leading to the extinction of numerous species, most notably the dinosaurs. We are all familiar with the demise of the dinosaurs caused by a colossal asteroid impact 65 million years ago. Additionally, as recently as 2013, an asteroid exploded over a Russian city, resulting in injuries to nearly 1000 individuals.

Asteroids of any size that come close to Earth can have serious consequences. Even a 4m space rock traveling at high speed has a huge impact.

So, just check the numbers of asteroids and the threat they represent here.

How many asteroids have close encounters with Earth?

According to a Live Science report. In 2022, 126 asteroids have approached the Earth, and in 2023, about 50 so far. It also mentions that once a year a four-meter asteroid can come within 2,600 kilometers of the Earth’s surface.

According to astronomers, any space object that passes closer than the moon, which is approx. 300,000 kilometers away, called “close approach”. An asteroid with a diameter of more than 1 kilometer can have a huge impact on Earth, but such cases occur once in half a million years. In the meantime, we can expect several near-Earth objects to come close on an almost daily basis. These are about a few hundred meters wide.

How can we analyze the asteroid threat?

To date, more than 95 percent of asteroids have been discovered and assessed for threat and impact. However, the 5 percent that remain undiscovered are the focus of space agencies, and each newly discovered space rock is thoroughly studied to assess its impact.

According to the Turin scale, the predicted dangers up to a century from now are classified on a scale from 0 (no risk) to 10 (certain impact). To date, no such asteroids have been estimated to exceed 4.

The biggest headache is caused by asteroids that escape detection because they arrive from the side of the Sun that blocks all visibility due to glare. Just recently, an asteroid flew past Earth and was discovered by astronomers two days after.