IIT Delhi Study Finds Poker & Rummy Require Skill, Not Just Luck

Contrary to popular belief that card games like poker and rummy are based on chance, research from the Indian Institute of Technology Delhi (IIT-Delhi) has revealed an element of skill in it, disproving long-standing misconceptions.

In games of skill, the outcome is primarily determined by the skills, knowledge and strategic decisions of the players involved, such as in chess.

In contrast, games of chance rely heavily on luck and random events, and players have little control over the outcome. Games such as roulette, slot machines and lotteries fall into this category. For years, poker and rummy have been considered more gambling than games of skill. This distinction often determines the legal and regulatory framework surrounding these games.

FACTORS THAT LEAD TO WRONG UNITS

• Element of Luck: Both poker and rummy have an element of chance, as players do not know what cards or tiles they will be dealt. This can lead some players to believe that the outcome of the game is largely determined by luck.
• Pro Player Perception: Some people believe that professional poker and rummy players are only successful because they are lucky. They may point to the fact that these players often win large sums of money, even when playing against other skilled players.
• Popularity of gambling: Poker and rummy are often played in casinos, which are businesses that rely on gambling. This can lead some people to believe that poker and rummy are simply games of chance designed to separate people from their money.

RESEARCH

An IIT-Delhi study titled ‘Online Poker and Rummy – Game of Skill or Chance?’, led by Cadence Chair in Artificial Intelligence and Automation Tapan K. Gandhi, has broken down misconceptions about both the card games. The research conducted by Professor Gandhi and his team focused on understanding the dominance of poker and rummy skills in both online and offline environments.

The study not only confirmed the importance of cognitive skills and other abilities required for success in these games, but also analyzed the impact of experience and the skills to be learned on the long-term success of players.

Gandhi said of the study: “During our research, we were presented with compelling cases that made it clear that these sports actually require an innate understanding that helped develop the cognitive abilities of the players. Not just limited from a skill perspective to the sport, we also found that the player’s softer skills, such as understanding social cues , making decisions in high-pressure situations, memory retention, among other things, develop throughout the game.”

Deepak Dhayanithy, associate professor of strategic management at IIM Kozhikode, who played a prominent role in an earlier report that established poker as a game of skill, agreed with the findings and emphasized that skill, not chance, is the driving force behind long-term success in online card games such as poker and rummy.

However, the IIT-Delhi study used mathematical tools for quantitative analysis to determine whether long-term success in online poker and rummy can be attributed to skill. Data from different groups of users who had played between 30 and 100 games in different formats were analyzed.

The findings were:

• Both poker and rummy skill metrics improved as users played more games.
• A measured correlation of 0.904 between users’ winning percentages highlighted a positive relationship, highlighting the importance of skill over chance.
• Consistency in winning percentages suggested that mastering the nuances and strategies of the games significantly improved performance.

The findings are also expected to influence the perception, regulation and legal status of poker and rummy, laying the groundwork for a wider discussion about skill-based gaming in the digital age.