Lionel Messi’s Potential Commitment to Apple’s Soccer Deal Examined

Lionel Messi, the revered football icon, has made his much-anticipated arrival in Miami to showcase his skills on the field. The immense turnout to welcome him is only surpassed by the overwhelming enthusiasm of the wealthy entrepreneurs who orchestrated this event, as they envision lucrative opportunities. It’s a moment of financial triumph, akin to the iconic Looney Toons imagery, as everyone eagerly awaits their payday.

His deal with Inter Miami, completed earlier this month, was unlike any other in the history of the sport, as success is not measured by the number of trophies he wins, but by how many streaming subscription sign-ups he can inspire.

Last year, Apple inked a $2.5 billion deal to acquire the worldwide rights to broadcast US Major League Soccer exclusively for 10 years through a separate app that costs $14.99 a month or $49 a season. Or existing subscribers to Apple’s TV service could get a discount, which is what this is all about: Apple and competitors like Amazon see live sports as a gateway to long-term subscriber loyalty, reducing viewers’ choice of streaming platforms.

According to Antenna, a subscription business measurement firm, the number of consumers considered “serial poisoners”—those who cancel three or more subscriptions in two years—has risen from 3 percent in 2019 to 16 percent in 2022. To reverse that, major sports rights could reach $6 billion,2oint. considerably, when the more profitable traditional sports offers are renewed.

Until then, the deep-pocketed tech giants will take all available rights. Apple’s MLS deal complements its existing rights to broadcast Major League Baseball. Amazon is furnishing its Prime Video platform, spending $1.2 billion per season to show NFL Thursday Night Football to viewers in the United States. Elsewhere, it has acquired the rights to show the English Premier League and French Ligue 1 in its local markets. In December, Google signed a $14 billion deal for the NFL’s Sunday Ticket, which this year will be streamed via YouTube.

Legacy broadcasters with existing rights use them to push their own streaming platforms, such as soccer’s UEFA Champions League on Paramount. The tension between traditional rights holders and the spending power of Silicon Valley is expected to escalate when the rights to America’s crown jewel, the NBA, go up for bid in 2025. Everyone is interested.

At $250 million per season, MLS is a small deal for Apple. But what it lacks in prestige, it makes up for in opportunity to experiment. To keep Messi, the finest player of his generation, from the far greater riches on offer in Saudi Arabia, Apple struck an unprecedented deal in which the World Cup winner earns a public cut of growth in international orders. Jorge Mas, the billionaire owner of Inter Miami, believes the increase could be around 2 million users.

That may seem like a small number, but Antenna’s data suggests that users who joined for sports are more valuable in the long run: 17% of customers who subscribed to Apple TV to watch Friday Night Baseball were subscriptions, compared to 39% of people who joined to watch Stranger Things on Netflix. And Apple TV could use some additional subscribers — the service is expected to lose more than $5 billion in 2023 alone.

The flaw in the plan is that Messi alone does not make MLS worth watching. Certainly, the ratings for his first Friday game are likely to be a record. Footage of his introduction at the stadium on Sunday garnered 3.5 billion views – and he didn’t even play. But motivation for fans to keep watching may be in short supply. The 36-year-old Messi sees his playing days in the 29-year-old MLS team’s worst performing team. Since its inaugural season in 1996, the American league has developed a reputation as a poor alternative to the game in Europe; a retirement home for stars looking for a slower game and a glitzy lifestyle.

Messi follows in the footsteps of England’s David Beckham in 2007 and Brazilian legend Pele in 1975. In both cases, promoters had no trouble getting Americans excited about their arrival. But keeping the fans involved was difficult.

The odds are better with Messi, who is still good enough to play on bigger pitches, and is arguably MLS’ biggest draw to date. Ticket prices for his first game can be measured on the Swiftian scale, averaging $2,600 apiece. (You could have seen Messi lift the World Cup in Qatar last year for about $600.)

Apple’s free rein in the MLS is the first sign of what the leading technology company can achieve. The company has 2 billion devices in active use around the world, through which Apple can gain new fans by harnessing existing Apple TV subscribers or Apple News and Podcasts users. It can provide a highly personalized viewing experience that includes statistics and other interactions such as replays and alternate camera angles. Others have clumsily experimented with these elements. Apple does it better.

And since most sports fans prefer to tap on a second screen to watch sports, Apple can bring its expertise to intelligently integrate social media and other community viewing elements. Commercially, the potential for integrating Apple’s payment features with the sale of goods or tickets is obvious (although it seems to have made betting a line it doesn’t want to cross).

Looking further into the future, Apple’s recent presentation of its Vision Pro virtual reality headset highlighted the possibilities for enjoying live sports. During the demo—only conceptual at this point—a viewer wearing headphones could watch an NFL game on their television while looking down at a 3D replay of key plays.

A sports purist might object to such bells and whistles. More importantly, fans of all kinds are frustrated with keeping up with sports that used to be possible with one handy remote control, which means paying multiple monthly fees to access multiple streaming apps. Messi’s arrival in MLS is an experiment not only for American soccer, but also for the future business model of sports broadcasting. Not for the first time, a lot rests on the little Argentinian’s shoulders: “Subscriber growth” is becoming as important a metric for him as goals and assists.